The math on 3pt shooting has been known forever. I went to basketball camps in the 90s and watched videos from the 80s explaining how if one team takes 10 2point shots and makes 6 they score 12 points, but if the other team takes 10 3point shots, they only have to make 4 to get 12 points. We always knew that math.
The problem was we expected a team could make 5 out of 10 2 point shots, but probably only about 3 out of 10 3point shots consistently. That would mean the 2point shooting team wins 10 to 9.
But now 3 point shooting has improved across the board and teams can expect to shoot 40% from 3 on the law of averages so 12 beats 10 4 to 5.
Because now streaky shooters can bomb away through 5 straight misses and then make 4 out of 5 and be shooting 40 % consistently. Previously there was a taboo that if your deep 3 point shots aren't falling, get closer 2 point shots.
The rest of the world thought this way since the 80s with the shorter international 3 point line.
But the USA could still beat those teams with superior athletes able to close out on shooters.